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Week Comm 1 May

Phil Newton's picture
at last the (rate driven) markets finally got "the message" from weeks of drip fed $ bear momentum & pumped thru the 2 week range caps......the Fed finally had to acknowledge the 'yield contraction potential' & realization that the eurozone-asian differential would likely haul in Stateside bias dominance thru 2006......... large demonination cap funds have been feeding into the 'swing' from the 1.74 base as we talked about several weeks back....it tested resolve back at the 7250 $ Bull resistance zones couple times, but met stiff bids from mid cap funds scaling out & building $ short positions, to balance their size exposure.......... I mentioned earlier this year that the 7700-750 would prove pivotal on any reverse move from the monthly $ resistance camps, as this was the initial zone for Bull stops off the 2005 pullback highs......further stops have been tripped all thru the 7800-8150 channel, shunting momentum hard to current levels............. 1.74 was key for feeding into this turn as it represented low r/r for a trip back to the much touted 1.85 $ dominance clip......it proved irksome, but allowed a decent base to kick thru the fib zones on expected fundamental confirmation that the buck was in trouble......all the ($) Bulls had going for them really was their rate muscle - once that became diluted & the deficits began knocking on their door, their weakness was exposed..... now price has popped, that 1.85 is the large cap target area......the range zones we've just broken will now harbour keen bid activity from hedge funds & CTA 2nd liners, who will have flipped partial funding bases across as their Bull stops got fired off...........it's not the top targets which will draw interest (they're already in the bag), but the prev range levels which will determine whether the buck will fully recover into the year end.......... clear demand zones are now in focus below, and as mentioned - the 7800-8200 channel will prove pivotal once the overbought momentum subsides.......it's now strong Bear territory!! and the fight will ensue between these lower range bid zones...............