I've been looking over my recent trades to see how I can improve the profitability of 1-2-3 reversals, which are my main strategy.
If I look at my last 30 trades, then I am at about break even. This is despite mistakes, seeing a pattern that was marginal, committing the sin of snatching small profits etc etc etc...
This suggests to me that just simple 1-2-3 patterns with a trend line break are sustainably profitable (I haven't lost money, and I have to admit to a few pretty poor trade choices along the line), but in almost every trade I've made, I could have:
(1) improved profitability with an earlier entry (I'll say how underneath)
(2) even on about half of the eventual losers, I could have broken even or at least limited losses substantially with an early partial scaleout.
What I'm looking at is something that I know many of you do already - Phil has described similar strats in his videos.
Lets consider a 1-2-3
potentially forming with a trend line break in a rising market (reverse everything for falling price, to reverse upwards of course):
Price makes a high at point 1, then a low at 2, then a lower high at 3. Rather than wait for the "safe" entry upon breach of the 2 point, go short as soon as price breaches the low of the bar making the lower high, i.e. the 3 point.
If the next bar after the bar making the lower high (3) is an inside bar, then go short on the next bar that makes a lower low, i.e. breaches the low of the inside bar.
Of course if the next bar after the "3" point is an up bar then the 1-2-3 at this point is invalidated (possibly temporarily, possibly for good if it spoils the R:R) R:R has to be 1.5:1 being (1 to 2) pips versus (2 to 3) pips on the potential 1-2-3 set up. Stop is always above "3" position plus spread plus 1 pip.
When short position taken, scale out 1/3 at the "2" point, run the next 2/3 to profit target being the height of the pattern, or unless TA (price action, RN's, support areas, etc) tells you to cover and get out.
I haven't back tested this but from my last few trades it would have almost universally improved pips taken, and more importantly, made even the eventual losers on the "simple" 1-2-3 strat cover themselves
Any comments, guys?
David ("BroadSword")