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Bollinger Trend Confirmation.........

Phil Newton's picture
I’m not going to overcomplicate this item, for what is, to all intents & purposes, a simple aid to observing & executing an opportunity of capturing a good % of a mid to large trend run........ a mid haul trend players objective is to buy strength on a breakout & sell weakness on a breakdown......patient & disciplined trend players accumulate large amounts of profits in the mid term with very few trades.....however, most punters find the actual execution & management of trends far more difficult than the theory suggests.....this is down to, in the main a (lack of) perception of value + a fear of giving back profits to the market – “psychological conflict” whipsaws are common when attempting to transact a probable trend run, & one of the major mistakes (new) traders make when looking to apply this trading strategy, is attempting to pick tops & bottoms of market turns + positioning themselves disproportionately to the markets rhythm (running too tight a stop loss)...... in addition, players get blown out of the water because they either don’t possess a defined method or they fail to stick to the basics/ground rules of the method....... we all know (from the many comments on here), nothing works all of the time....no matter how well a strategy is researched, the market, by it’s very nature, will unseat us & conspire to part us from our profits, whilst planting seeds of doubt inside our heads...... So, the trend follower not only needs a trigger to focus his/her att’n on, they also require a filter or a couple of shields to further strengthen their conviction...... Bollinger Bands are observed by many camp followers within the trend fraternity.....as I said on the intraday thread, 3 or 4 of our colleagues & a couple of my sisters at the firm use them for confirmers of a probable exhaustion at a top/bottom and/or a retracement within a large, defined trend move........ they observe them almost exclusively on Daily + charts, with the odd observation on maybe a 4 or 8hr reference for inside range confirmation...... folks often 'assume' that just because price approaches, hits & reacts to a band extreme (touches or pierces & pulls back from the high-low band), it’s a signal to reverse course??....not always so – strong or established trends will "ride" these bands & even conform to price waves inside 'band envelopes (smaller band within the main bands)......it can be a very dangerous tactic to blindly change course just because price has buffeted & attacked a band extreme........ which is where the benefits of a filter can sometimes help to establish a possible reversal or pullback inside a strong & well established trend..... the filter which the guy’s use in this instance is either an inside bar and/or a lower top/series of neutral bars (doji’s-spinning tops etc).....remember, when price begins to exhaust & shows signs of turning, the candles/bars will highlight crowd or herd behaviour?.....that’s what we’re trading!!!.....the patterns-candle formations are merely representations of "market psychology" therefore, if price fails to make new highs/lows on a larger chart timeframe, & this event occurs on or around a key level (round number/major swing point/big Fib % etc…or preferably A COMBO OF EVENTS), we need to be tuning into our rader & preparing for a possible trade set-up? we know an inside bar indicates protracted volatility?.....the higher the timeframe in which this contraction occurs, the greater significance it attracts! The object of the exercise is NOT to clip prices at extreme tops/bottoms or trade on a hunch......it’s to guage the higher probability, thru sensible observation, of price reacting to a change in market psychology......... Ok, lets take a peek at some examples of this scenario in action....... there are very few rules when observing this type of set-up.....the only major considerations when looking to execute are: the bar following the high/low has to be equal to (remember the 'double touch' bars mentioned prev on the threads??) or lower in value as price nudges/pierces the upper-lower Bollinger Band......... the BB settings are of standard definition (20:2) & the mov avg median line is set to a 20 simple moving avg........ we've talked endlessly & painstakingly on here about executing at an appropriate level or zone, yeah??.......as Phil has constantly reminded folks on the intraday threads: "it's not how you enter, but WHERE which carries the most weight!!!!!!!! well surprise surprise, it's no different with a long range strat than it is with a smaller framed alternative!! I've highlighted & zoomed into a dual frame capture of the same time period (Daily) to show the set up in close focus......PLEASE NOTE: stop positioning are crucial when applying a long range entry..... if you want to test this out, ensure you drop your size down or run it on a seperate account with maybe a token £1 or £2 pp until you bed yourself in & become familair with the scaling/compounding structures?? to appreciate the full potential of this type of trade endeavor, hike your own charts up & observe the chart fully zoomed out.......& remember - these types of entry won't come around every day on the big timeframes......but when they do :mrgreen: Euro trade: entry on the low of the doji Sept 4 2004 @ 2511.....stop above the inside bar @ 2590......price trailed down BELOW THE 20 MA MEDIAN LINE & managed on visits BACK towards the median........this is where multi-stake size & money management come to the fore :wink: CAD trade set-up (same criteria), note the area & level?? a 2 pronged Yen set-up.....levels & zones again??....note how the median line & opposite Bolly Band can be used for trade management?? this requires NO explaining or att'n amplification :mrgreen: Cable will, & does provide excellent opportunities to really crank the profits on these types of combo entries......not wishing to continually repeat myself, but: most of these critical levels will coincide with larger (weekly/monthly) frame Fib zones - "top down approach" analysis :wink: and finally, a more recent slant on the current mid term Cable scenario......... like any other form of strat analysis, I/we work to a combination of Fundamental & Technical awareness.....if you stand back & really think about where these reactions formed, you'll arrive at a similar conclusion: the technical scenario was/is a direct result of "majority psychological" sway.....and that is first actioned via a direct & uniform reasoning, ie: a major shift in Fundamental conjecture.......... personally, I don't have these BB's up on my charts.....BUT: during our regular meetings & conf calls, I most definitely pay att'n to the other traders readings & views on where these price shifts are occuring according to THEIR analysis & research..........I then utilize this info to position us to the correct side of the markets............ however, how much time does it take to scroll thru the various pairs to identify any such set-ups????? hardly rocket science huh?.....you can use it as another arrow in your quiver or a secondary tool in your kit bag?? for those who wish to observe the set-up on 4hr charts, take a peek!!...same settings, similar generic reasonings etc............